Why Has the US Arms Delay Rattled Taiwan?

The $14 billion arms deal between the US and Taiwan, which includes advanced F-16 fighters, Abrams tanks, and Patriot missiles, has been put on hold by the Biden administration. This delay is a gut check for Taiwan: does Washington still have its back, or are we witnessing a strategic recalibration in response to rising tensions with China?

Beijing’s hawkish stance on Taiwan has only grown more resolute in recent years, driven by Xi Jinping’s vision for a “Greater China” – an ambition that puts Taiwan firmly within its crosshairs. The island nation’s defenses have been woefully underfunded since the 1990s, with estimates suggesting that Taiwan’s military is still about $2 billion short of the funds needed to modernize its forces.

The delay has triggered a wave of anxiety in Taipei, with Taiwanese leaders scrambling to reassure their public and allies that the island remains committed to self-defense. This uncertainty stems from more than just Beijing’s saber-rattling: it also reflects a deeper trust deficit between Washington and Taipei. Taiwan has grown accustomed to Washington’s military largesse, viewing each new arms package as a testament to US commitment to its defense.

Biden’s decision to delay the sale could signal a fundamental shift in how the US views its role in regional security. Some argue that the delay is merely a temporary pause, a tactical concession to placate Beijing ahead of potential talks with China on trade and other issues. Others see this as a symptom of a larger strategic rethink: one where Washington prioritizes cooperation over confrontation, and recalibrates its military aid accordingly.

The latest twist has echoes from decades past. The Sino-Soviet split of the 1950s and ’60s saw China break with Moscow over ideological differences but continue to covet Soviet military aid. The parallels are imperfect, yet striking: just as China then sought to balance its ties with both Moscow and Washington while strengthening its own armed forces, so too does it today seek to straddle regional rivalries.

Washington’s delay will undoubtedly fuel Beijing’s confidence in its ability to pressure Taipei – a prospect that’s already worrying Taiwanese officials. They’re acutely aware of the risk of over-reliance on US aid: should Washington one day choose to abandon Taiwan, what strategic options would it have left? The clock is ticking in Taiwan, and the $14 billion arms package has been delayed; its ultimate fate hangs in the balance.

William Yang, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, notes that “The Biden administration’s decision to delay or cancel the sale of F-16s and other advanced military equipment to Taiwan could weaken its defenses.” This raises questions about regional security: what does this portend for Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, and how will it impact the balance of power in East Asia?