Damage Control Diplomacy in New Delhi

The arrival of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in India this weekend is a stark reminder that even the most optimistic expectations can be quickly dashed by the harsh realities of geopolitics. Rubio’s confirmation as Secretary of State last year sparked fireworks of optimism in New Delhi, where policymakers anticipated an unprecedented alignment with the United States.

However, those hopes have been tempered by the transactional politics and structural deadlock that has come to characterize the relationship between Washington and New Delhi. The high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month has only added to these concerns. While Trump briefed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi directly after his talks with Xi, India received no such call.

The Modi government was left to parse a stark shift from the adversarial, anti-China posture that had characterized the previous administration. This development highlights the ongoing challenges in the US-India relationship, which remains fragile and subject to the whims of domestic politics. Despite the two countries’ shared values and strategic interests, their partnership has been strained by recent moves from Washington.

Rubio’s visit is largely focused on damage control – an attempt to repair the relationship and reassure India that it remains a key partner in the region. The Indian Embassy in Washington may hail Rubio’s trip as a “new chapter” in bilateral ties, but this characterization underestimates the challenges ahead.

One of the most significant implications of Rubio’s visit is its focus on briefing New Delhi on the Trump-Xi summit. This exercise speaks volumes about the changing dynamics of the US-India-China triangle. As Washington’s relationship with Beijing continues to evolve, India finds itself caught in the middle, struggling to navigate its own relationships with both countries.

Historically, India has walked a delicate balance between the United States and China, seeking to maintain good relations with both while pursuing its own strategic interests. However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult as Washington’s policies towards Beijing become more assertive. The Modi government’s response to the Trump-Xi summit will be closely watched not just in New Delhi but also in Beijing and Washington.

Rubio’s briefings on the summit will also address India’s growing concerns about its position in the region. Despite being a key player in the Indo-Pacific, India has been left out of several high-profile US initiatives aimed at countering China’s rising influence. The Quad, a quadrilateral security dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia, and India, remains dormant due to Indian reluctance to commit to joint military exercises.

Rubio’s visit comes at a critical juncture in the US-India relationship. As Washington continues to pivot towards Asia, it needs reliable partners like India to help anchor its strategy in the region. However, for this partnership to succeed, both countries need to be willing to engage on issues of mutual concern and address the structural challenges that have long plagued their relationship.

Ultimately, the success of Rubio’s visit will depend not just on his diplomatic efforts but also on the willingness of both governments to work together towards a common goal. The future of US-India relations hangs in the balance – and it’s up to Rubio to convince Indian policymakers that this partnership is worth fighting for. To achieve this, Rubio must demonstrate a deep understanding of the complexities of the US-India relationship and be willing to address the deeper structural issues that have long plagued their partnership.