‘Growth Is Good’: The Towns Avoiding the Rural Death Spiral

The decline of rural towns in Australia is a pressing concern that threatens both their economic viability and social fabric. Behind the Great Dividing Range, once-thriving farming communities are struggling to stay alive, with shuttered pubs, boarded-up homes, and an aging population that’s shrinking by the day.

In West Wyalong, for example, the median age has skyrocketed from 26 in 1960 to 43 today. In Grenfell, it’s a staggering 52. The narrative of decline is often attributed to urban-rural divisions, fueled by resentment over issues like illegal clearing prosecutions and net zero policies.

This animosity has created an environment where migrants – once the backbone of these communities – are increasingly seen as scapegoats for the region’s economic woes. In towns like Cowra, the shift from farmhands to mechanized workforces has reduced the working-age population, while retirees have become a dominant force.

One Nation, the party capitalizing on anti-immigration sentiment, may be exacerbating the very problems it claims to solve. By proposing cuts to immigration and advocating for a three-year population decline, the party risks crippling regional economies further. The annual target of 130,000 net migration is far from the government’s goal of 230,000, but its implications are still unclear – particularly regarding skilled workers like nurses and engineers who are desperately needed in these areas.

The story of Shepparton is instructive. This once-thriving regional hub has seen a surge in One Nation support, driven by anger over issues that have nowhere else to go. However, it’s also a tale of how urban-rural tensions can be exploited for short-term political gain. As Professor Alan Gamlen notes, “The world is changing too fast for people to comprehend, and they need a simple explanation… blaming the outsiders has been a really successful political strategy.”

Urban planners and politicians would do well to heed these warnings. The decline of rural towns is not just an economic issue; it’s also a social one. As communities shrink and age, their very identity is at risk. Meeting the needs of this population requires more than just attracting new residents – it demands innovative solutions that address the root causes of decline.

Shepparton’s mayor, Paul Smith, has highlighted the challenges of recruiting healthcare professionals to his town. The brand-new hospital is a testament to the region’s efforts to modernize, but even its most attractive features cannot compensate for the lack of workforce opportunities. This paradox – where growing towns struggle to attract and retain young people – is at the heart of Australia’s regional woes.

The stakes are high, not just for rural communities but also for urban centers that rely on them. As the country grapples with population growth and economic uncertainty, policymakers must find a way to balance competing interests without exacerbating regional decline. The future of these towns hangs in the balance – and it’s time for politicians to put aside their short-term electoral interests and focus on the long-term sustainability of our regions.

In Cowra, mayor Smith’s words are telling: “We have a brand-new hospital… but if they’re an engineer, that can make it difficult.” This is not just a local issue; it’s a national one. The future of Australia’s rural towns depends on finding solutions that work for everyone – not just those in power.