The Deepening of Security: An Underwater Arms Race Takes Shape

As tensions escalate in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, a quieter but significant development is unfolding beneath the waves. A new arms race is emerging, one that promises to reshape the security landscape in profound ways. At stake are the critical infrastructure cables and pipelines crisscrossing the ocean floor, which underpin the global economy.

For decades, nations have focused on aerial surveillance and combat, but the advent of advanced autonomous systems, AI-powered sensors, and underwater drones is changing this calculus. The ocean floor, once considered a relatively secure domain, is now recognized as a critical front in the struggle for dominance. This shift represents a fundamental transformation of how nations approach national security.

The growing awareness of hybrid warfare’s capabilities is driving this shift. Hybrid warfare combines cyberattacks, energy sabotage, disinformation, and economic pressure to create an environment where conventional military methods are no longer the only game in town. Katja Bego, senior research fellow at Chatham House, notes that nations and corporations alike are investing heavily in new technologies designed to detect and deter underwater threats.

The devastating sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022 has forced governments to reassess their priorities and allocate resources accordingly, leading to an exponential growth in spending on underwater surveillance and defense systems. The incident serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities that have been largely neglected since the Cold War era.

Companies like Fincantieri are positioning themselves for this shift by acquiring majority stakes in companies with expertise in underwater and surface drones, marine surveying, and subsea communications. Fincantieri’s 600 million euros ($689 million) investment sends a clear signal that the industry is taking notice.

However, beneath the hype surrounding this new arms race lies a more nuanced reality. Companies like Euroatlas are tackling the problem of scale head-on by developing autonomous underwater vehicles that can patrol strategic areas and converge when needed to report back to operators. This approach addresses financial constraints while acknowledging that machines can be more efficient in certain contexts.

As nations enter this new era of underwater warfare, they must recognize the risks involved. Bego warns that the widespread deployment of autonomous systems has created a new set of problems, particularly with regards to anti-autonomous underwater vehicle missions. The emergence of AUVs raises questions about the classification and identification of friendly versus hostile assets, underscoring the need for clear protocols and guidelines.

As nations balance the benefits of increased security with the potential risks associated with deploying autonomous systems, several pressing questions arise: Can we ensure that these machines are designed with accountability in mind? What implications does this shift have for international cooperation and conflict resolution?

The answers to these questions remain uncertain, but one thing is clear: the underwater arms race has only just begun. With billions of dollars being invested in new technologies and systems, it’s essential that policymakers, industry leaders, and experts engage in an open dialogue about the implications and consequences of this shift.

The security of our global infrastructure now depends on the security of our oceans. The deepening of security is not just a phrase; it’s a reflection of the reality that has been unfolding beneath our feet. It’s time to acknowledge the challenges and complexities associated with this new era of underwater warfare, rather than merely celebrating its potential benefits. The future of our global economy, not to mention our very way of life, depends on it.